Dallas Cowboys Favorites To Win NFC East

The dark times of not having any football to watch are finally over, as the Dallas Cowboys and the rest of the NFL kick off preseason play this week. After back-to-back disappointing seasons in which they missed the playoffs, the Cowboys are looking for this to be the year they turn things around and even outsiders seem to think they have what it takes to get back to the postseason. 

One of my favorite annual traditions before a new season begins is when USA Today puts out their yearly NFL record projections, giving their predictions on what every single team’s final record will be, and how the regular season standings will fall. Late last week we were treated to these projections, and it was none other than your Dallas Cowboys who they had winning the NFC East. 

“After being extensively retooled with veteran and rookie acquisitions, it appears they’re poised to play ‘a lick of defense’ after owner Jerry Jones lamented a unit that surrendered the most points in the league in 2025,” Nate Davis wrote. “If new DC Christian Parker can progress his side of the ball to average, then what ought to be an explosive offense should have enough firepower to get this team back atop the division… and maybe much further for a franchise that hasn’t reached the Super Bowl or NFC title game in more than three decades.”

Davis went on to predict an 11-6 finish for the Cowboys in Brian Schottenheimer’s second go-round as the head coach. After back-to-back seven-win season’s, the Cowboys desperately need to turn things around, but they may just have everything they need to be able to do so. 

All 11 starters return from an offense who finished second in total yards and seventh in total points a season ago. They will be looking to see if they can replicate that success, while making drastic improvements on the defensive side of the ball, after allowing the third-most total yards and allowing more points than any other team in the league in 2025. 

First-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker has a chance to become beloved by the fan base immediately, if he can get his unit to even just middle of the pack. With the addition of guys like Rashan Gary in the offseason, and draft picks like Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence (not to mention guys like Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams, who the Cowboys traded for last season) experts seem to think this Cowboys team has what it takes. 

The Washington Commanders were the only other member of the NFC East that was predicted to finish above .500, coming in at 9-8. They were followed by the Philadelphia Eagles who were predicted to finish 8-9, and the New York Giants, who were at the bottom with a projection of 6-11. 

The love didn’t stop there, however, as they also predicted every playoff matchup in the article. The projections had the Dallas Cowboys as the 3-Seed, having home field advantage against the Detroit Lions and picking up the win in the Wild Card round. 

Davis then went on to predict the Cowboys to do the unthinkable, and upset the 2-seed Chicago Bears in the divisional round, advancing to their first NFC title game in 30 years. Finally, in the NFC Championship Game the USA Today has the Cowboys season coming to an end, against the top seeded Rams (who they also predict to go on and defeat Buffalo in Super Bowl 61).  

Being predicted to go all the way to the NFC Championship Game is high praise for a team who has gone just 14-19-1 over the last two seasons, but it might not be that far fetched. The Cowboys finished in the bottom five in both points allowed and total yards allowed in each of the last two season’s, before finally bringing in Christian Parker to run the defense. If he can help them get to even just middle of the pack defensively, their high-powered offense should keep them in shape to win most games.

At the risk of rambling, while we’re already looking at projections and what not, I thought it might be fun to make some projections of our own. For anybody who’s willing to stick with me, let’s take a look at the schedule and break down exactly how achievable an 11-win season could be for the Cowboys. 

September 

To make things easier, we’ll break the schedule down by month so we’re able to look at little chunks of the season at a time! In the month of Septmber the Cowboys play: 

• Sept. 13 @ Giants 
• Sept. 20 vs Commanders 
• Sept. 27 vs Ravens 

Immediately the Cowboys get to open their season against a pair of division rivals, both of which they should be favored over. The Ravens very well could give them trouble as well, as they are predicted to be a 10-win team themselves, but given the home field advantage, we’ll say the Cowboys open up the season with three straight wins!

October 

• Oct. 4 @ Texans
• Oct. 8 vs Buccaneers 
• Oct. 18 @ Packers 
• Oct. 26 @ Eagles 

Well, things get pretty tricky, pretty quickly for the Cowboys, as they’ll spend almost the entirety of October on the road. To makes things even more tricky, the one home game they do get in October is on short rest, as they’ll host Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football. 

It’s hard to see the Cowboys going better than 2-2 in this stretch, though I also don’t think they will do any worse than that. They have to travel to both Houston and Green Bay who are projected to finish with double-digit wins, and no matter how good they are or aren’t this year, going to Philadelphia is always a tough task. I’m going to say they find a way to win two here and drop two, and they will be 5-2 going into November. 

November 

• Nov. 1 vs Cardinals  
• Nov. 8 @ Colts  
• Nov. 15 vs 49ers  
• Nov. 22 vs Titans  
• Nov. 26 vs Eagles 

Now this feels like a chance to get back on a hot streak. If you told me the Cowboys sweep this entire month I’d absolutely believe you, especially with their toughest matchup being a home game against San Francisco. That being said, between having to face both San Francisco and Philadelphia (even if they’re both home games) for the sake of making prediction’s we’ll say they lose one of these games? Making them 9-3 through their first 12 games?

December 

• Dec. 7 @ Seahawks 
• Dec. 20 @ Rams 
• Dec. 27 vs Jaguars 

After a somewhat easy stretch in the middle part of the season, the Cowboys will have a pretty damn tough stretch as the season winds down. In back-to-back week’s they’ll have to face last year’s Super Bowl Champion, and the team predicted to be this year’s Super Bowl champion by USA Today (both of which, they have predicted to go 14-3 this year). 

They also have to turn around and then play a solid young Jacksonville team, who USA Today is predicting will go 9-8 in 2026. I would love to say they find a way to win more than one of these, but I don’t know that I can. I think to be safe, we’ll say they win one game in this stretch, and they go into the new calendar year with a record of 10-5. 

January 

• Jan. 3 vs Giants 
• TBD @ Commanders 

When I went into this exercise I wasn’t trying to see exactly how they get to 11 wins. I was simply trying to see how realistic it seemed, and if I thought it would actually be more or less than 11. It turns out, 11 may be exactly how many games this Cowboys team wins. 

I think they will absolutely sweep the Giants, but that final game of the season against Washington could go either way. With it being a road game, and a strong chance Washington is fighting for their playoff life, that could become a very hard fought game. I will say they split these two games in January and finish the regular season with exactly 11 wins. 

The Cowboys have shown a genuine commitment to turning things around over the last year or so, from switching their philosophy in head coach (bringing in Brian Schottenheimer, who isn’t their usual head coach candidate), to bringing in a young, first-year defensive coordinator in Christian Parker, and giving him the keys to overhaul their defense. Even down to not only bringing in guys like Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams, but turning around and paying them when they do (Williams JUST signed a three-year extension worth $106M Monday). 

Dallas finally seems to be making the exact kind of competent moves it takes to turn a franchise around. Now it’s time to see if the moves they are making will pay off.