Noted Economist, Dr. Ray Perryman, addresses a large crowd of local businessmen
and women at Wednesday's Economic Outlook Conference, hosted in the Civic Center.
Perryman Predicts "Slow & Steady" Climb
in Economy, at Wednesday Luncheon
by: Bobby McDonald
Dr. Ray Perryman, world renowned economist, predicted a "slow and steady" growth in the national economy, over the next six to nine months, as he spoke to a large crowd of local businessmen and women in the Hopkins County Regional Civic Center, at lunch on Wednesday. The annual Economic Outlook Conference is hosted for the local community by the Hopkins County Chamber of Commerce.
Gold sponsors for the event included: Alliance Bank, City National Bank, Farmers Electric Cooperative, Luminant Energy, Morning Star Foods, Qualified Employment, and We Pack. Silver Sponsors included: Advanced Heart Care, AgriLand Farm Credit, Atmos Energy, Clayton Homes, Gloria Mitchell Insurance, Guaranty Bond Bank, Ocean Spray, Paris Junior College, and Pilgrim Bank. Bronze Sponsors included: A&S Air Conditioning, Century-21 First Group, China House, Inc., Larry Lanham, DDS, SSISD, Northeast Texas Farmers Co-op, Sulphur Springs Floral, Super Handy, Inc., Texas Heritage National Bank, Town & Country Cleaners, and Visiting Angels of Paris.
Jackie Thornton, Chairman of the Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors, welcomes
everyone to Wednesday's noon luncheon.
In opening remarks, Perryman outlined the economic growth the national has experienced over the past five quarters and reflected some of the indicators that influenced that growth. He mentioned the "inventory cycle" that is an influence of producing goods simply to replenish inventory and saw positive signs of growth, despite that factor, indicating an economic rebound that is measurable and "headed in the right direction." "Certainly, we'd like to see more growth in the economy, but when we were on the brink of a world economic crash, two years ago, like no one had ever experienced, we're heartened by slow steady growth that is headed for positive results, stated Perryman. "That's the good news and I feel that we'll see the same slow and steady growth for the next six to eight months, as I don't see our economy rebounding more quickly than that!"
"The past three years have seen unprecedented economic challengers for our country and world," stated Perryman. "Even with an official end date of June 2009 and output expansion beginning more than a year ago, the recessions effects continue to linger in our economy. As 2010 winds down and we focus on 2011, there is reason to believe that the pace of expansion will begin to build momentum as the year progresses!"
"Among the positive 'below-the-radar' signals for the U.S. is the fact that they typical employee workweek has begun to edge upward," continued Perryman. "Many companies have been postponing hiring and investment decisions, until the recovery demonstrated staying power, and the time looks right for an increase in activity to begin with greater economic stability."
"I base these reflections on the U.S. national elections being over and the unpredictable tax laws soon being decided, as positive things that will help to influence some moves in the economy," continued Perryman. "Two years ago, when I stood before you, our global economy was in a very dangerous situation, much more dangerous than anyone wanted to believe that it was. But, we've seen it rebounding and I predict an 'economic boom' once the consumer and corporate American gains more confidence in spending. Corporate America is 'sitting on' some $2 Trillion dollars and has it out of circulation, once they decide to put that back into circulations, we will see a 'bullish' economy, like we've never seen before!"
Perryman also noted that the recent elections had changed the face of Washington, to have a Republican controlled House of Representatives, but the Senate has a Democratic majority, and there is a Democrat in the White House, thus, he predicted not much of anything being done "monumental" in Washington. He used the Health Care Bill as an example of how laws are shaped and how partisan politics have a way of shaping the economy and legislation. "The House of Representatives are a more precise group of people and formulate laws that reflect that outlook. However, the Senate is a body of broad ideas, and they're influenced by that philosophy, so laws are made in a joint compromise committee," stated Perryman. "The Health Care Bill that was adopted was simply a Senate Bill and remains broad in its structure and doesn't reflect the regulatory issues that would have been included in a joint committee bill, thus, no one knows what it says. We'll have to have it 're-worked' to even know what it means!"
"When some of these unpredictable indicators in the economy are decided, the economy will reflect a rebound and experience a booming growth," predicted Perryman.
Local Economic Development Director, Roger Feagley, and Chamber Director, Meredith Caddell,
visit with Perryman, following his Wednesday presentation.
Perryman then outlined the effects of the economic downturn on the Texas economy, and stated that we were 8% of the U.S. economy and that one out of every 7 dollars in goods and services come from Texas. "We were the last to feel the pressure of the recession, we were the first to come out of it, and we can credit that to a vast population growth, only a reduction in overall home values of only 2%, and a strong banking environment of locally owned banks," expressed Perryman. "We only lost 400,000 jobs in Texas and we are adding 1,000 people to our population daily!"
"And, Texas is a technology producing state, with Austin as the fastest growing place in America, and people are buying technology," stated Perryman. "That continues to influence our economy in a positive aspect, here in the state of Texas."
Perryman also indicated that the Northeast Texas Region of Texas would continue to see growth, although it would be slower than the larger populated areas of the state.
At the conclusion of his presentation, Perryman then answered a number of questions from the audience, including an expose on the agricultural sector of the economy, the "QE2" buying of Bonds by the Federal Reserve, the influence of Bio-Technology in the Medical and Agricultural sectors, and the strenght and weakness of the American Dollar, influencing the economy.
"The American Dollar is still the currency of choice in the world and will remain so, as the global economy continues to recover from the recession," stated Perryman. "The European Economy is showing signs of 'bottoming-out' and headed back up, but will require some structural and cultural changes, before it will be prepared for the global economic growth of measurable success."
Following Perryman's presentation, a drawing was held for a $100.00 door prize, and Meredith Caddell and Jackie Thornton, with the Chamber of Commerce presented Perryman with a gift basket full of locally produced products.
The luncheon dispersed at approximately 1:30 p.m., with poinsettia centerpieces being given to lucky winners at each table.
And, Scott Brown, Chairman-Elect of the Chamber of Commerce Board, was taking
those "slow and measured steps, up the ladder of success" as he prepared to take
down signs, following Wednesday's luncheon, in the Hopkins County Civic Center.
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